¹West-African-German Center of Excellence for Local Governance in Africa (CEGLA).

²Director of Studies, Programming and Training, Research head at the National Institute of Agronomic Research of Niger, Niger.

*Correspondence: E-mail Addresses ✉: abdoulazizoumarou62@yahoo.fr; oumarouabdoulaziz62@gmail.com; Phone Number ☎: Tel: (+227) 98249428

Accepted June 20, 2022

This study analyzes the nature and determinants of rice price instability on the Gaya market. It aims to determine the factors influencing local rice prices to mitigate this instability and find appropriate solutions. The error correction model is used to analyze the influence of international rice prices on local rice prices. The data used are from the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA). The base consists of a monthly panel of fifteen (15) years from 2006 to 2020. The results show that a 1% increase in the international price of rice increases the local price of rice by 0.904% in the short term and by 0.996% long term. In addition, an increase in rainfall of 1% reduces the local price of rice by 0.050% in the short term. The results from this analysis show that the international price positively influences the local price of rice. To this end, we suggest that the government: Increase the productivity of local producers to meet local demand to reduce the instability of imported prices, subsidize inputs to make local production competitive to constrain rice imports, encourage producers used short-term improved rice seed varieties to overcome the problem of irregular rainfall and increase the areas of hydro-agricultural facilities.

Key words: Rice, Gaya, MCE, Local price, international price.

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